cohort component

Unlocking Population Estimation Using Readily Available Data: Applying the Simplified Censal Ratio Method

Headshot of Mathew Hauer
Mathew Hauer, Florida State University
Figure 2: Figure 2 shows a graph depicting the correlation between the Censal Ratio Population estimate of 2019 (based on 2010 data) and the actual US Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimate of 2019. The x-axis shows a range of the 2019 censal ratio population estimate, ranging from 0 to 800,000. The y-axis shows a range of the 2019 population estimate and also ranges from 0 to 800,000. The graph demonstrates how the Censal Ratio Method produces a more closely accurate set of estimations than the symptomatic indicator alone. 
Figure 2: Comparison of Census Population Estimates and Censal Ratio Population Estimates across Alabama counties in 2019, where the Censal Ratio Estimates are produced using voter registration data in 2010 and 2019. Source: Alabama Elections Database & Census Bureau.

Population estimation is generally a straightforward process: any population must result from a past population number plus the births minus the deaths plus the net migration. This cohort-component method is often considered the ‘gold standard’ for population estimation (Gerland, 2014).  However, the components of change (births, deaths, migrants) used to forecast a future population are… Read More