Taylor van Doren

Knowing and understanding change: Methods insights using historical pandemic data

Headshot of Taylor van Doren
Taylor van Doren, Sitka Sound Science Center
Two plots of mortality rates for six major causes of death in the United States from 1900-1998: accidents, cancer, heart disease, influenza and pneumonia, stroke, and tuberculosis. The left image is age-adjusted mortality rates for the time period, showing a notable large increase and then decrease of heart disease and other various trends for the other causes. The right image is the log transformations of these mortality rates, showing a notable dramatic decrease in tuberculosis mortality, specifically.
The age-adjusted mortality rates (left) and logarithmic transformation of age-adjusted mortality rates (right) for six major causes of death in the United States from 1900-1998.

Pandemic diseases, like COVID-19, have far-reaching effects that are difficult to identify or predict during the course of the pandemic itself. Case numbers and mortality due to pandemic diseases ebb and flow, but even after time has passed, it is useful to know (1) when the waves occurred, (2) if the pandemic disease had effects… Read More

Estimating time points of significant change in cause-specific mortality: Joinpoint regression in R

Headshot of Taylor van Doren
Taylor van Doren, Sitka Sound Science Center
Two plots of mortality rates for six major causes of death in the United States from 1900-1998: accidents, cancer, heart disease, influenza and pneumonia, stroke, and tuberculosis. The left image is age-adjusted mortality rates for the time period, showing a notable large increase and then decrease of heart disease and other various trends for the other causes. The right image is the log transformations of these mortality rates, showing a notable dramatic decrease in tuberculosis mortality, specifically.
The age-adjusted mortality rates (left) and logarithmic transformation of age-adjusted mortality rates (right) for six major causes of death in the United States from 1900-1998.

INTRODUCTION Those engaged in demographic research are often interested in how and why the vital demographic processes (fertility, mortality, and migration) change in response to certain ecological, cultural, or behavioral stimuli. Today, in the midst of a global pandemic event, epidemiologists and demographers may be interested in the ability to identify points over time during… Read More