projections

A new method for detailed small area projections

Two sets of distributions of estimated cohort change ratios for males ages 20-24 across King County census tracts by the method of estimation. The HP method, on the left, has a much wider range of values and, thus, a wider distribution of estimates while the multi-stage smoothing method on the right has a narrower range distribution, but still allows for variations between racial groups.
Distribution of estimated male cohort change ratios for 20-24 year olds across King County census tracts by race and method. Note that there is a much narrower distribution of values for the multi-stage smoothing method which pools estimates to look more similar to the average. As a result cohort change ratios rarely exceed 1.5 which would indicate a 50% growth rate of a particular age, sex, and race combination in a particular census tract.

Small area projections by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity applied to all census tracts in King County, Washington.